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What are the greatest predictors of success? – vitaMIND
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What are the greatest predictors of success?


We often think success is based on individual merit. When we fail, people tell us we simply are not working hard enough or we simply are not talented enough. However, this way of looking at success is fundamentally wrong. Malcolm Gladwell in his book Outliers posits that success is more than the work of the individual. It is the also the product of the world we live in. Context is key.

Hardwork: Necessary but insufficient

“Practice isn’t the thing you do once you’re good. It’s the thing you do that makes you good.”

Malcolm Gladwell

Our society believes strongly in the power of preparation and for good reason. Every individual with a sustained record of excellence in a particular field had engaged in many hours of deliberate practice to hone their specific skillset.

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Psychologist K. Anders Ericsson investigated the correlation between practice hours and a violinist’s ability.

Psychologist K.Anders Ericsson  conducted a study at Berlin’s Academy of Music to find out if there is a correlation between effort and ability. He grouped the school’s violinists into 3 tiers based on their ability and asked them how many hours did they commit to practice the violin throughout their lives. Those in the highest tier clocked a total of 10,000 hours, those in the middle practiced for 8000 hours and those at the bottom spent 4000 hours.  Ericsson conducted a similar study with the school’s pianists and obtained similar results. He thus came to establish the 10,000 hour rule, meaning that if you spend 10000 hours honing a specific skill, you would achieve mastery.

However, beyond a certain point, more hours put in does not lead to improved results. Brooke Macnamara and Megha Maitra , psychologists at Case Western University had set out to repeat part of Ericsson’s 1993 study to find out if they would obtain similar results. They again separated 13 violinists into 3 tiers and questioned them about their practice hours. While the bottom tier clearly practiced much less than their counterparts in the middle tier- 6000 hours versus 11,000 hours, those in the middle tier and top tier both invested similar number of hours into practicing. While it is necessary to invest numerous hours into practice to be competent at a particular skill, being truly great at your craft requires much more than sheer effort. Other factors are at work.

Innate talent: genetics are overrated

Some people are just genetically predisposed from birth to be better at certain things than others. Take basketball for instance. Height, wingspan and ability to accelerate are all essential traits for players looking to compete at the elite level. While improved technique and environmental factors can help to make up for or enhance these traits, a person’s genes still play a role in determining whether a person would have a fighting chance at the NBA or not.

Still, while genetics does play a role in determining success, its significance is largely overplayed. Duke School of Medicine Professor Dr Daniel Belsky conducted large data mining studies to investigate the relationship between specific genes and better socioeconomic outcomes. They identified certain desirable genetic variants that linked with particular educational outcomes and the strength of the correlation. Then, based on that information, they calculated a polygenic score for each individual, which indicated the number of desirable genetic variants they possessed.  The result? They found participants with higher polygenic scores were only slightly more successful. Genetics played a very small role in determining success.

Intelligence: It is necessary but to a certain point

To achieve your dreams, IQ is important only up to a certain point.

If you are still skeptical about that we overplay the significance of genetics in determining success, chances are you strongly believe in the game-changing power of intelligence. Analytical intelligence is one of those things we are born with. It is unlikely to change.  IQ however is only important up to a certain threshold. Beyond that certain threshold, having a higher IQ does not translate to any measurable real-world advantage.

Psychologist Arthur Jensen identified four most important threshold regions on the IQ scale that could affect one’s aspirations for success.

His findings are as follows:

  •  An IQ score of at least 50 is needed to attend regular school
  • An IQ score of about 75 is needed to master the subject matter taught at elementary school
  • An IQ score of 105 is needed to succeed in the college preparatory curriculum through high school
  • An IQ of 115 is needed to qualify for admission to a professional or graduate school.

For most occupation aspirations, you only require an IQ of 115. Beyond which, any increase in analytical intelligence does not make you any more likely to be successful.

Well, now we established that genetics does not play a major role in determining success, what does?  Believe it or not, it is the context that we are in: upbringing, time and place, culture and heritage that largely shapes us for success.

Upbringing: The people around us matters

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Parenting style plays a key role in determining a child’s success.

In his best-selling book Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell talked about the importance of practical intelligence being a key factor in becoming successful. Psychologist Robert Sternberg defines practical intelligence as “Knowing what to say to whom, knowing when to say it, and knowing how to say it for maximum effect”. In essence, being able to read and react to situations to get what you want. Gladwell establishes that practical intelligence is not something we are born with, but rather something that we pick up from our environment.

This is where upbringing is key. The level of practical intelligence you possess has a lot to do with the family we are raised in. Upper-class parents and lower-class parents often have differing parental philosophies. While lower class parents were less-involved in their child’s upbringing, letting their child develop on their own, upper class parents were highly involved in managing their child’s schooling and extracurricular activities. Beyond schooling, upper-class parents would sign their children up for a whole array of activities, exposing them to many different fields and keeping them constantly busy. By doing so, the children are actively discovering and developing their passions, while picking up skills like time management and stress management.

Children hailing from upper class families develop a sense of entitlement that enables them to speak confidently to authorities.

In addition, upper class parents develop in their children a sense of entitlement, which is essential for them to get what they want in the world. Sociologist Annette Lareau studied two kids, Katie and Alex in the 3rd grade along with their families. Alex, who hails from an upper-class family had been taught by his mother to confidently speak up to authority figures and has been trained to think critically and challenge others if necessary. Meanwhile, Katie, who is from a lower-class family, has learnt to be submissive towards authority figures like teachers, that she has picked up from observing her mother. Upper-class parents understand the skillsets and attitude that is needed to rise to the top of the social ladder and naturally they have actively developed their kids in those areas.

The environment we are in is important to our development as an individual. We cannot choose our parents. However, we can actively choose the schools we want to go to, the connections we want to build and the places we want to work at. Actively seek out good friends and mentors to surround yourself with to help yourself hone the skillsets necessary to succeed in life.

Location and timing: Opportunities await

Location and timing is more important than you think. Incredible opportunities come at the right place and at the right time. Skadden, Arps, Slate, Maeagher and Flom LLP is one of the most reputable law firms in the world. As a struggling firm in the past, their dramatic rise was spurred largely due to impeccable timing in the American legal market.

Joe Flom, the last living partner of Skadden LLP got a job at Skadden and Arps, a then struggling law firm after graduating from Harvard Law School. Due to antisemitism at the time, Flom, being a Jew, could not secure a job at the better law firm. At Skadden and Arps, they specialized in handling litigation, corporate takeovers and proxy fight cases handed down to by established law firms that thought of these cases as uncivilized. As luck would have it, in 1970s, there was a sudden boom in hostile takeovers, an area that Skadden and Arps and other second-rate law firms specialized in. This allowed the firm to outshine all other competition and subsequently made a name for themselves in the legal industry. Being at a second-class law firm in America in the 1970s would place you in the best position to capitalize on the opportunities presented.

America’s economic transformation in the 1860s to 1870s

Another example that showcases the significance of location and timing in determining success is by looking at the 75 richest people in the world.  The amazing thing is that 14 of the people on the list are born between 1830-1840 in America.  This is because in the 1860s and 1870s, the American economy went through a period of tremendous transformation and growth, with railroads being built and industrial manufacturing started. Being born in the 1830s in America would have allowed you to be old enough to capitalize on these extraordinary opportunities. If you were born in the 1820s, your mindset and skillsets were so entrenched in the old American economy that youcould not take full advantage of the economic transformation. If you were born in the 1840s, you were too young to leverage on these opportunities.

Of course, hardwork and vision are necessary to leverage on the opportunities presented. However, if you are not at the right place and at the right time, there are no opportunities to speak of in the first place.

Culture and heritage: Our ancestors shape who we are today

We might have our individual personalities, but the culture in which we inhabit shapes our behaviors as well.

The history of our people plays a greater role in the present more than we can possibly imagine. It has greatly shaped our modern-day attitudes and practices which sets us up for success in some areas and failure in others.

Let’s begin by seeing how our cultural heritage sets us up for failure. Between 1988 and 1998, Korean Air had one of the highest incidences of plane crashes, losing 5 planes per million flights. In comparison, American Airlines had a near spotless record, with one plane accident every 4 million flights. The reason for Korean Air’s startling number of crashes was due to primarily Korea’s cultural legacy.

Korean Air Flight 801 crashed to a hillside in Guam, killing 228 people.

Interested in how culture shapes one’s behavior, Dutch Psychologist Geert Hofstede wanted to investigate which cultures valued authority and which did not. Hofstede created the Power Distance Index (PDI) as a measure for the level of respect each culture accords to authorities, with a higher value signifying greater respect for authorities. Koreans, who accord a high level of respect to seniority, naturally had an incredibly high PDI. Americans, on the other hand, believed strongly in self-expression and consequently regarded authorities with less respect. It is interesting to note that majority of the air crashes occur because the co-pilot is often too scared to point out the faults of the pilot in command. The co-pilots of Korea Air respected the command chain to such a great degree that they did not dare speak up to the pilot in command about any potential faults , leading to a higher incidence of plane crashes.

In 2000s, David Greenberg from Delta Airlines was brought in to transform the struggling Korean Air. He knew the Korean high PDI dynamic should not be the defining culture in the cockpit. Greenberg sought to reinvent the power dynamics in the cockpit, from one of absolute authority to one of mutual co-operation. Reinventing the pilot training program, Greenberg made English the standardized language in the cockpit and encouraged the co-pilots to be more assertive. Since 1999, Korean Air had yet to experience an air crash incident.

Asians have been known to excel at Mathematics. Source: OECD

On the flip side, let’s see how cultural heritage sets us up for success. You might have heard that Asian children are naturally good at math. But the reason for this is not innate talent, but rather how the Asians learn their numbers, again shaped by their heritage. Looking at the Chinese, Japanese and Korean numeral system, the sequence is very logical. Conversely, the English numeral system is highly irregular. For example, 11 is eleven in English and “十一” in Chinese and Japanese which translates to ten-one. Clearly, the Chinese and Japanese numeral system is more intuitive and thus easier to comprehend. 

Consequently, Asian children learn to count much faster than American children and start tackling more complex problems from a younger age. They are more likely to enjoy math and thus are more likely to put more effort into learning mathematics, allowing them to outperform their American peers in standardized tests. Asians excel at math because of their numeral system established by their ancestors and not because of their innate talents.

The good news is that we can learn from other cultures and utilize them to our advantage, just like how Greenberg introduced an English-speaking culture to the cockpits of Korean air. Identify which cultures are advantageous at which fields and consider learning them to use them to your advantage.

Success is complicated. But we can all succeed.

With the right context and attitude, we are well-positioned to succeed.

When we fail at something despite trying our hardest, we often think we are not talented enough. We look at highly successful people like Lionel Messi, Jeff Bezos or Beyonce and think they are incredibly lucky to have been born with immense talent. As shown above, innate talent is only but a small factor in a person’s success. Success is achieved by the amalgamation of various factors that occur together. Attributing success to individual brilliance is a grossly inaccurate simplification of a highly complicated context. Each successful individual had a unique set of circumstances that they took full advantage of to get to where they are today.

So do not despair. Granted, extremely successful individuals are extremely lucky in the sense they have the right set of circumstances and gifts to leverage on. We would probably never be as successful as them. However, by understanding the key factors of success and using them to our advantage, we are able to become successful in our own right. Bill Gates had a passion for computers since young because of his frequent exposure to computers at school, which later enabled him to grow Microsoft to the technology giant it is today. Now imagine a world if Bill Gates did not get those rare opportunities to learn computing. Would he be as successful as he is? Probably not. But he would likely still be successful. His strong work ethic, daringness and charisma would have allowed him to take full advantage of any opportunity that came his way.

Beyond simply putting in the hardwork, we have to constantly question the context we are in. Is my culture and heritage setting me up for success? Am I surrounding myself with the right people to hone my skills? Am I at the right place at the right time?   With the right context and attitude, we are well-positioned for success in life.

Afterword

If you enjoyed the article, I would highly recommend Malcolm Gladwell’s book Outliers from which I drew a lot of inspiration from. With the use of gripping storytelling techniques and an honest tone, Gladwell breakdowns the complex subject of success in an engaging manner that is easy to understand.


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